Best practices for camera/weather data analysis

[BeauWPS]

 

[BeauWPS]

This is only one camera and a very small sample size. It spans mid-November to first week of February.

This camera is on a community scrape that gets visited often. Deer pass by the camera often as well as predators and varmints. Bucks get their own record entry. Does in groups count as one singular record entry for simplicity. This cannot account for deer that skirt the camera and do not cross its path. It's not a definitive study and really has no control.

I measured the delta from the timestamp of the photo against Moon Overhead (meridian passing), Moon Underfoot (overhead plus 12 hr, 26 mins), Moonset and Moonrise. I removed 10 entries that did not have a Moon Overhead metric (only moon underfoot for the day)

If the photo was taken within +/- 3 hours of one of these metrics, I marked it green. If the photo was taken within +/- 5 hours, I marked it yellow.

35% of deer on camera showed within +/- 3 hours of Moonset.
11% of deer on camera showed within +/- 5 hours of Moonset.
46% total showed within these ranges of Moonset.

33% of deer on camera showed within +/- 3 hours of Moonrise.
8% of deer on camera showed within +/- 5 hours of Moonrise.
41% total showed within these ranges of Moonrise.

and so on...

Coincidence? Trend? I don't know. Too small of a sample size, but interesting to review.

 

[BTaylor]

From both listening to the MSU podcast breaking that study down and talking in person with Dr. Strickland, the primary focal point was distance and rate of travel. While that has relevance for hunters, imo, it is not the most relevant thing to focus on. What we are most concerned with is when a particular deer is most likely to show at a specific location and is there any predictability in the direction of travel. Type of location, time of season and imo, solunar timing and weather all come into play along with estrous cycles of doe groups and hunter pressure. Too many variables to be very precise but trail cam data can show you trends and a trend gives you something to work with. I would rather bet on a trend as opposed to "I think I will go climb at this spot cause it looks good." Most folks are not willing to do the full data gathering to look at as many variables as possible but simply letting cams soak and marking a calendar for the days when the buck or a buck you would be happy with daylights at a certain location, esp around the rut. That historical data gives you a trend to work with assuming conditions are similar. In other words similar mast year, a logging crew didnt move in, etc. Those type things can make that historical cam info pretty much useless for that particular season.

 

[GCTerpfan]

This is only one camera and a very small sample size. It spans mid-November to first week of February.

This camera is on a community scrape that gets visited often. Deer pass by the camera often as well as predators and varmints. Bucks get their own record entry. Does in groups count as one singular record entry for simplicity. This cannot account for deer that skirt the camera and do not cross its path. It's not a definitive study and really has no control.

I measured the delta from the timestamp of the photo against Moon Overhead (meridian passing), Moon Underfoot (overhead plus 12 hr, 26 mins), Moonset and Moonrise. I removed 10 entries that did not have a Moon Overhead metric (only moon underfoot for the day)

If the photo was taken within +/- 3 hours of one of these metrics, I marked it green. If the photo was taken within +/- 5 hours, I marked it yellow.

35% of deer on camera showed within +/- 3 hours of Moonset.
11% of deer on camera showed within +/- 5 hours of Moonset.
46% total showed within these ranges of Moonset.

33% of deer on camera showed within +/- 3 hours of Moonrise.
8% of deer on camera showed within +/- 5 hours of Moonrise.
41% total showed within these ranges of Moonrise.

and so on...

Coincidence? Trend? I don't know. Too small of a sample size, but interesting to review.

View attachment 127459

I'm not sure I completely understand how you are breaking out your data but, It's hard to parse out other factors when looking at data like this. If you are looking at two events and a +/- 3 hour window (6 hours total) of each event you are accounting for 12 hours or 50% of your day. Factor in that the majority of your photo's occurred during the night or near sunrise/sunset when we know deer are more active and you can see how other factors can muddy the waters.

 

[BeauWPS]

I'm not sure I completely understand how you are breaking out your data but, It's hard to parse out other factors when looking at data like this. If you are looking at two events and a +/- 3 hour window (6 hours total) of each event you are accounting for 12 hours or 50% of your day. Factor in that the majority of your photo's occurred during the night or near sunrise/sunset when we know deer are more active and you can see how other factors can muddy the waters.

If this data were at all telling, my approach would be to target days where these lunar events occurred during shooting hours, especially in November which is peak rut.

As far as night pictures go, my image is a mere snippet. I have a total of 101 photos as data points. I’d have to go back and count, but I wouldn’t say off hand a majority of them are at night.

It’s always suggested to be in the stand all day during the rut. +/- 3 hours is nothing for an “all day” sit. If the lunar event occurred at 10:00am that would be 7:00am to 3:00pm. That’s a chip shot if you’ve ever hunted daylight to dark.

If the event doesn’t completely occur during daylight the hunt may be the front half or back half of shooting light.

All I’m saying is in a sample size of 101 photos over 1/3 of my buck and doe pictures occurred within 3 hours of either side of a moonrise or moonset. That’s like saying you’ve got a 33% chance of seeing a deer near that camera if you can hunt for 6 hours and not get busted.

Is it a moonrise or a moonset when they show up? That’s a gamble if nothing else proves it.

This isn’t scientific and I’m no scientist. Just pointing out what I found as a unique observation within my own photos. There’s a ton of external factors that can influence data and we can all agree deer are crepuscular.

I’d be curious to hear how others have used their data points to varying levels of success whether that be wind, moon, election year cycles, etc.

 

[BeauWPS]

I have no qualms being critical of my own data either. It’s not a controlled environment. You set a camera up somewhere else and you may get no photos.

When did the deer get up? Where did they come from? How far did they travel? Were they being pushed? Did the buck pass by because he smelled a doe? Were there hunters in the area? On and on.

More or less saying “hey, I’d be in the woods during these hours”. It’s not a guarantee and it’s not even a specific deer. Trying to unlock the mysteries of hunting is interesting though.

 

[GCTerpfan]

All I’m saying is in a sample size of 101 photos over 1/3 of my buck and doe pictures occurred within 3 hours of either side of a moonrise or moonset.

This sums up my point. 3 hours either side of both the moonrise and moonset is two 6 hour windows or 12 hours total or 50% of your day. If deer moved around randomly all day then you would expect 50% of your pictures to be in those two 6 hours windows. It's only slightly better at 66%, but that doesn't account for movement when those 6 hour windows overlap with dusk and dawn, which we know deer are crepuscular and move more during those periods. I'd bet if you parse out the dusk and dawn influence you would see the moon phase doesn't affect movement.

Or I might be missing something, multiple text messages and I couldn't convince @BTaylor of this about his data either.

 

[BeauWPS]

This sums up my point. 3 hours either side of both the moonrise and moonset is two 6 hour windows or 12 hours total or 50% of your day. If deer moved around randomly all day then you would expect 50% of your pictures to be in those two 6 hours windows. It's only slightly better at 66%, but that doesn't account for movement when those 6 hour windows overlap with dusk and dawn, which we know deer are crepuscular and move more during those periods. I'd bet if you parse out the dusk and dawn influence you would see the moon phase doesn't affect movement.

Or I might be missing something, multiple text messages and I couldn't convince @BTaylor of this about his data either.

So what data do I need to be evaluating?

 

[GCTerpfan]

So what data do I need to be evaluating?

There’s nothing wrong with looking at all of the data. I just haven’t seen data that shows the moon has a significant impact on movement. But I acknowledge I could be missing something.

 

[BTaylor]

This sums up my point. 3 hours either side of both the moonrise and moonset is two 6 hour windows or 12 hours total or 50% of your day. If deer moved around randomly all day then you would expect 50% of your pictures to be in those two 6 hours windows. It's only slightly better at 66%, but that doesn't account for movement when those 6 hour windows overlap with dusk and dawn, which we know deer are crepuscular and move more during those periods. I'd bet if you parse out the dusk and dawn influence you would see the moon phase doesn't affect movement.

Or I might be missing something, multiple text messages and I couldn't convince @BTaylor of this about his data either.

If deer are always moving at dawn and dusk, how would one go about explaining the dozens and dozens of times I have busted bedded deer at a feed tree going in at gray light. Or the deer I have watched bed in the last 30-45 minutes of daylight in the evening? Or what about those mornings when nothing is stirring for the first couple of hours of daylight? Skwerls are in their hole, birds on a nest, nothing is moving and then about 8:30 the woods come alive and everything starts moving including the deer. How we splainin that?

 

[GCTerpfan]

If deer are always moving at dawn and dusk, how would one go about explaining the dozens and dozens of times I have busted bedded deer at a feed tree going in at gray light. Or the deer I have watched bed in the last 30-45 minutes of daylight in the evening? Or what about those mornings when nothing is stirring for the first couple of hours of daylight? Skwerls are in their hole, birds on a nest, nothing is moving and then about 8:30 the woods come alive and everything starts moving including the deer. How we splainin that?

Like anything there are no absolutes. The MSU deer lab studies show that movement is heavily correlated to dawn/dusk and weather. It's been a while since I have read Bob Sheppard's book but, I think he came to similar conclusions. I admit I might be missing something but, I just haven't seen any data that's convinced me yet.

Honestly, I hope you guys are right and kill a big one during some hunt you planned around the moon.

 

[raisins]

This is only one camera and a very small sample size. It spans mid-November to first week of February.

This camera is on a community scrape that gets visited often. Deer pass by the camera often as well as predators and varmints. Bucks get their own record entry. Does in groups count as one singular record entry for simplicity. This cannot account for deer that skirt the camera and do not cross its path. It's not a definitive study and really has no control.

I measured the delta from the timestamp of the photo against Moon Overhead (meridian passing), Moon Underfoot (overhead plus 12 hr, 26 mins), Moonset and Moonrise. I removed 10 entries that did not have a Moon Overhead metric (only moon underfoot for the day)

If the photo was taken within +/- 3 hours of one of these metrics, I marked it green. If the photo was taken within +/- 5 hours, I marked it yellow.

35% of deer on camera showed within +/- 3 hours of Moonset.
11% of deer on camera showed within +/- 5 hours of Moonset.
46% total showed within these ranges of Moonset.

33% of deer on camera showed within +/- 3 hours of Moonrise.
8% of deer on camera showed within +/- 5 hours of Moonrise.
41% total showed within these ranges of Moonrise.

and so on...

Coincidence? Trend? I don't know. Too small of a sample size, but interesting to review.

View attachment 127459

Interesting but I would focus on the things that we know for certain influence deer movement (location, time of year, time of day, hunting pressure, and weather).

 

[raisins]

If deer are always moving at dawn and dusk, how would one go about explaining the dozens and dozens of times I have busted bedded deer at a feed tree going in at gray light. Or the deer I have watched bed in the last 30-45 minutes of daylight in the evening? Or what about those mornings when nothing is stirring for the first couple of hours of daylight? Skwerls are in their hole, birds on a nest, nothing is moving and then about 8:30 the woods come alive and everything starts moving including the deer. How we splainin that?

Easy, I don't think anyone wrote "always".

Hunting is like poker. There's a random component but if you know how to "play" then if you up your odds from 1% to 3% (modest gain), you'll end up killing 3X the number of deer given enough time. I once saw a big buck at 2 pm cruising on a busy hiking trail I was walking in on, but that was such a rare event that I would never set up for it, despite seeing it myself.

 

[BTaylor]

Bunch of flat earther's you cant tell nothing too. I tell you the truth...

 

[NMSbowhunter]

Easy, I don't think anyone wrote "always".

Hunting is like poker. There's a random component but if you know how to "play" then if you up your odds from 1% to 3% (modest gain), you'll end up killing 3X the number of deer given enough time. I once saw big buck at 2 pm cruising on a busy hiking trail I was walking in on, but that was such a rare event that I would never set up for it, despite seeing it first myself.

I think you hit the nail on the head regarding the biggest factor I think relates to seeing and killing deer. Time in the woods. I think statistically speaking, given the same chunk of land, a hunter who has 2 days a week and spends 12 hours total on stand per week will end up being less successful than a hunter who can spend 4 days a week with 24 hours spent actually hunting. My opinion, but the best "gear" someone can buy to make them a better hunter is a reliable vehicle to get them to and from the woods, plenty of gas to put in it, and days off to be on stand.

 

[raisins]

I think you hit the nail on the head regarding the biggest factor I think relates to seeing and killing deer. Time in the woods. I think statistically speaking, given the same chunk of land, a hunter who has 2 days a week and spends 12 hours total on stand per week will end up being less successful than a hunter who can spend 4 days a week with 24 hours spent actually hunting. My opinion, but the best "gear" someone can buy to make them a better hunter is a reliable vehicle to get them to and from the woods, plenty of gas to put in it, and days off to be on stand.

True, but I'd add in gear to keep them comfy walking and on stand for long periods. All that is way more important than your bow or arrow setup, assuming they are adequate....more important than your saddle and platform too, so long as they are okay.

 

[NMSbowhunter]

True, but I'd add in gear to keep them comfy walking and on stand for long periods. All that is way more important than your bow or arrow setup, assuming they are adequate....more important than your saddle and platform too, so long as they are okay.

I think a ground hunter with a Pacseat, or Torges seat with a decent bow, some walmart camo or muted clothing and patience who can spend a lot of time in the woods will fare better over the long haul than a Technology focused hunter with $1000 camo outfit and $2000 in stands and sticks who only spends a few hours a week on stand hunting.

 

[NMSbowhunter]

That said, there is something interesting to me about trying to gather data and work out some deeper meaning from it. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that.

 

[BeauWPS]

Can of Worms: ENGAGED
Honestly, that was not my intention at all with this thread or my posts but hardly ever is a good discussion that does not involve good banter and independent thinking as long as it’s kept clean.

I’m throwing the kitchen sink at my data. Sunset, sunrise, moonrise, underfoot, solar noon, barometric pressure, humidity (I actually think humidity is an interesting one and an advantage to a deer’s nose. Just watch them lick their noses), etc. There’s got to be some routine that deer is on. Maybe it’s the obvious.

If that doesn’t work then I’ll use ol’ reliable: “You can’t kill them from the couch.”

 

[LAKY]

I would narrow in your time frames to an hour on each side of whatever criteria you are using. Also, I'd maybe add in location specific data to look at, like scrape in cover, scrape in feeding area, night time feeding area, daytime feeding area, slope aspect, ridge, bottom, etc. Multiple columns to take into account locations that may have multiple features. Looking forward to what you find.