No real comment on the article, other than I liked Matt Miller's Fishing through the Apocalypse and have read other stuff by the author of the article that I like. OL and Field and Stream have surprised me a couple of times in the past few years publishing stuff that I think is obviously true but equally obviously not popular with their base.
As far as the rest of the conversation...
Hunting is dead. Full stop. It's not dying, it's dead, and we're living off of a corpse.
We do not have enough public acreage to support quality hunting for enough hunters to sustain the model that was envisioned. The men who started the North American Model had an excellent vision, and started the ball rolling. Subsequent generations have failed to continue to accumulate public lands, and at this point I honestly do not think that we can accumulate enough public land to make the NAM work based on hunting/fishing. Pittman-Robertson and Dingell-Johnson funding are mainly supplied by non-hunting firearms/ammo sales and and non-fishing recreational boating fuel at this point, which has served to mask the situation to most outdoorsmen. So even state-level DNR funding (which is only one very specific and relatively small part of conservation spending compared to funding coming from oil taxes, non-sportsmen nonprofits and agencies, etc) isn't even able to sustain itself with hunter participation.
Everybody is worried about anti-hunting takeover of DNRs, but I can tell you that in my state the more insidious problem is takeover by extractive industry. DNR in more rural, conservative states is very much beholden to timber, ranching, gas, mining, etc., The hunting stuff they do is good PR at this point and not much more. If the Men who Matter want to set up a lithium mine on your public land, or graze cattle, or clearcut, or drill for oil, they will eventually. You may have beat them last year, and you may beat them next year, but you have to keep winning, and they only have to win once. It's been this way at the state level (at least in my corner of the world) for a long time, but now we have the director of the EPA stating that their organizational goal is to "unleash American energy." This isn't what they were chartered to do, but here we are. As we continue to develop and use resources (and the AI-boom has greatly accelerated this process) business will come for what is left of public land, and it will degrade in ability to support hunting.
As far as making private land accessible, this is a pipe dream. We have, right or wrong, repeatedly demonstrated that we will brook no talk of collectivism when it comes to acreage. My boss used to work in land sales, and part of my job is editorial teamwork on a recreational property management podcast. I'm pretty familiar with what land costs, and what it costs to maintain that land so that it will support quality hunting. It is currently beyond most family's grasp, and that situation will not be improving.
I say all of this as a lifelong hunter, whose daddy, grandaddy, great-grandaddy, and great-great-grandaddy all hunt(ed). I work in the hook & bullet world, and have for my entire career. I've interviewed state DNR directors and throughout the southeast. I've got friends that work in state and federal agencies from Corps of Engineers to Fish and Wildlife to college research and park biologists. I'm on the board of two conservation groups. I'm young, but I've paid close attention for the last decade, have read up on the last hundred years of conservation history, and have talked to a lot of "old timers" who all say the same thing. The hunting and fishing that they have today (deer hunting aside) is universally worse than it used to be. We broke our arms patting ourselves on the back for bringing wood ducks, turkeys, and deer back, put the shovels down, effed off, and now we're having to acknowledge that duck numbers are free-falling, turkey numbers are dropping, and at least in my state upland bird hunting is a complete non-starter.
It's over. It's done. If you sit on the right side of the income bell-curve, you'll be able to ride out your lifetime. If you're really well off, you may be able to pass it on to your kids or grandkids. But hunting in North America is already irreversibly on its way to being a pastime of the well-heeled, just like it is on every other continent.
R3 won't fix it. Hunt Quietly won't fix it. The people who opposed public lands when folks like Teddy and Muir advocated for them have very quietly but diligently dismantled the institutions that protected them. Case-in-point, there's an extremely good chance that the revisions to definitions of "waters of the united states" will remove protected wetland status from 80% of the current acreage protected. That number is from the EPA. That will have massive impacts on public access, duck breeding success rates, and water quality. It's barely making a ripple in the sporting community, and it's just one of an almost unfathomable number of changes we're making in the name of making the US more "business-friendly."
Deer and squirrels and predator trapping are the last bastions, because those animals can survive in urban sprawl and farm monocultures. But I've watched duck hunting decline from bad to abysmal in the last ten years, haven't seen a good group of snipe in 3, and have never even seen enough rabbits or quail to attempt to hunt them. We have been so lost in navel-gazing and sticking our head in the sand that we didn't see that the habitat loss Aldo Leopold and others warned ourselves about didn't stop, or even slow down, but accelerated in pace.
Again, hunting is dead. It may still be capable of fogging a mirror, but it isn't recovering. It will not get better in a meaningful way for a meaningful number of people. And it's pretty bad right now. The amount of work or money that it takes to be successful now is greater than it ever has been. This is a deer hunting forum, so we have the best of it. But those of us who hunt other species know that on the whole, it's really terrible right now. And we're diligently undoing all of the things we did to salvage the situation.