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Rut projections

HuskerInIowa

HuskerInIowa

Well-Known Member
SH Member
Joined
Aug 18, 2022
Messages
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I saw a video tonight that has peak rut projections for a bunch of states narrowed down to a few days. Does anyone put much stock into something like that? Here in the Midwest the first week of November has been tossed around like gospel for as long as I can remember.
Nov 10-12 was just so exact it caught my eye, which I’m sure was the intent of the video.
Personally I don’t see myself being in the woods more or less based on that but the 11-12th is a weekend so that’s kind of my go in at 9:30-10AM time when a bunch of guys leave. Deer don’t move after that.
 
woodsdog2 said:
Study after study after study shows photoperiodism is the king of the rut. Here where I live and hunt, peak breeding is always between Election Day and Veterans Day.
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Exactly this ^^^. The only real questions is daytime movement and that is going to be influenced by current weather conditions, moon position, and pressure imo.
 
Almost none. I only put stock into what I see and I experience anymore.
I've seen the same game play out 3 years in a row now. It's going to vary obviously depending on the part of the country you're in. In NEPA, if you want to harvest a buck go time is Oct 28th to Nov 8th. If you want a mature buck, its the 9th to the 20th. Our season closes a few days before the 20th.
The very biggest bucks usually walk by between 10 and 230. This is from my personal observations and many many trail cam pics. Warm weather usually shuts down daylight activity and forces it to nighttime.
 
Three things to keep in mind:

- measuring fetus size, and determining peak breeding periods for a region is a very, very, very, very mature and precise exercise. It’s not up for debate. It isn’t an opinion.

- we know absolutely nothing about the environmental factors that may impact peak breeding period moving, relative to the factor that corresponds most strongly - amount of light going into a deer’s eye. Our instruments are too blunt to attempt to learn anything.

- given that the things that may move peak breeding period from what has been measured/averaged previously is so unpredictable, and given the historical data is so reliable, it makes little sense to rely on our thoughts and opinions and feelings to determine when the rut will be.
 
kyler1945 said:
- given that the things that may move peak breeding period from what has been measured/averaged previously is so unpredictable, and given the historical data is so reliable, it makes little sense to rely on our thoughts and opinions and feelings to determine when the rut will be.
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...then what else am I supposed to do at work when the rut is still 6-8 weeks away????
 
I find the rut happens around the same time every year, but how much movement I see during the day is largely dependent upon temperature. I hate that there is often a warm snap at the beginning of November here the last several years. There's nothing better than cold weather that time of year.
 
Same time every year just trying to sell you something. Weather impacts how much cruising you see to a significant degree. The presence or absence of a hot doe in your particular tiny little area when you happen to be there determines how much chasing and general ridiculousness you encounter.
 
kubes14060 said:
...then what else am I supposed to do at work when the rut is still 6-8 weeks away????
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Haha. I don’t know. A few options come to mind:

Work.

Build heavy arrows.

Obsess over nuances of climbing methods.

Obsess over nuances of backpacks.

Quit and fish.
 
Plebe said:
Me too. Was just thinking...ohh...what on earth was I thinking.
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In all seriousness I was just curious if some people see those projections and increase time in the stand based on it. I kinda just hunt as much as I can when I get to so I don’t sweat that stuff too much. I’ve already got a couple days off in the middle of the week during the first week of November (put in for them Jan 2 of this year) and now I’m finding out I’ve got some use it or lose it time off I need to take so my plan is to use it mid week in each of the last couple weeks of October and hit more prerut.
Main reason I target midweek is just that hunting public there are less folks overall and also I don’t stress about being in the stand at 5:30; I’m happy to take my kids to school and then go hunt. I don’t want to disturb the people that do show up early and I also despise this new culture of blasting people online for walking through public 3 hours after you got there. Or on the other end of the spectrum the guys who complain someone set up where they had a preset they weren’t in when you got there like it’s their spot. Put up your ladder stand and leave it there for 3 months all you want to buddy; if you ain’t in it and I see good sign or bump a deer I’m climbing the closest tree.
 
HuskerInIowa said:
I saw a video tonight that has peak rut projections for a bunch of states narrowed down to a few days. Does anyone put much stock into something like that? Here in the Midwest the first week of November has been tossed around like gospel for as long as I can remember.
Nov 10-12 was just so exact it caught my eye, which I’m sure was the intent of the video.
Personally I don’t see myself being in the woods more or less based on that but the 11-12th is a weekend so that’s kind of my go in at 9:30-10AM time when a bunch of guys leave. Deer don’t move after that.
Click to expand...
Those peak rut projections can be interesting, but deer behavior can still vary. Trust your hunting instincts and schedule, especially if November 10-12 works well for you. Timing and strategy often matter more than precise predictions.
 
HuskerInIowa said:
I saw a video tonight that has peak rut projections for a bunch of states narrowed down to a few days. Does anyone put much stock into something like that? Here in the Midwest the first week of November has been tossed around like gospel for as long as I can remember.
Nov 10-12 was just so exact it caught my eye, which I’m sure was the intent of the video.
Personally I don’t see myself being in the woods more or less based on that but the 11-12th is a weekend so that’s kind of my go in at 9:30-10AM time when a bunch of guys leave. Deer don’t move after that.
Click to expand...
Those peak rut projections can be interesting, but deer behavior can still vary. Trust your hunting instincts and schedule, especially if November 10-12 works well for you. Timing and strategy often matter more than precise predictions.
 
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