I believe that the number to get a P&Y entry should vary by state. In Alabama that might be a 100" deer whereas in Iowa that number should probably be 140" (just pulling that out of my a$$ but you get the idea)
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Nutterbuster Spreads(sheets) It Wide Open
- Thread starter Nutterbuster
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So, as mentioned in an earlier post, most states have local record keeping. In Alabama I believe a 100" deer is in fact accepted in AWR. Hence the value of digging deeper. Which we're starting to do in 3...2...1...
Iowa County-By-County Analysis
New Hampshire, New York, and North Caroline coming later today or tomorrow.
I'll probably show the difference between P&Y and AWR later as well. I still think P&Y is the best way to get a quick handle on the situation in any area given they have the lowest barrier to entry at 125" and they have almost universal "top-of-mind" recognition for anyone who shoots a big ole buck.Just to really screw your numbers, Virginia used to have it's own scoring system until about 10-12 years ago. Pretty much added 25" to a normal P&Y score. Took me a while after moving here to figure out why people kept showing me 150" deer that clearly weren't!
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There's a great example of this where I hunt and have seen the transformation over the last 20 years. The area I'm mentioning was not at all optimal for nutrition and hunting pressure until managed by a well known organization. "If you build it they will come." It's taken time but it's amazing the size of deer that can be seen driving along the managed land at dusk/dark where the adjacent properties aren't even a comparison. No high fences, just free range whitetail that choose to be on this area.
New York County-By-County Analysis
Notice we've gone from the top 20% of counties by P&Y entries accounting for 30-40% of the bucks to 60%. Also notice that while the bucks harvested per county and per mile doesn't look "too bad" the "Buck per X people" figure is 1 buck harvested since 1908 for every 738 2014 residents. Note that in Iowa the best county is a buck every 51 people, and to hit 1 buck per 700ish residents you have to go down to the bottom 40%.
Notice we've gone from the top 20% of counties by P&Y entries accounting for 30-40% of the bucks to 60%. Also notice that while the bucks harvested per county and per mile doesn't look "too bad" the "Buck per X people" figure is 1 buck harvested since 1908 for every 738 2014 residents. Note that in Iowa the best county is a buck every 51 people, and to hit 1 buck per 700ish residents you have to go down to the bottom 40%.
So in IA there is not a big buck behind every tree, just 60% of them?
I live in Iowa, and I know two people that have registered one deer each, and they were both monsters, over 180". They both shoot 150" or bigger every year, and have only registered their one biggest deer (to date). I also searched on multiple other hunters I know have shot multiple eligible bucks, and none have entries. Yes people in iowa score their deer, but everyone i know does it unofficially, with the exception of two giants. Yes, I'm a small sample size, but I think that's the normal in iowa. I have multiple on the wall too that have not been registered.As much as I love looking at the data, appreciate Nut's hard work collecting it, and think it is useful for reporting broad trends across whole regions, there is so much bias in a reporting system like this.
In human health, this is called volunteer bias.
Volunteer bias
Participants volunteering to take part in a study intrinsically have different characteristics from the general population of interest.catalogofbias.org
The central idea is: reporting rates vary widely with culture, affluence, region, and many other factors. I know for almost CERTAIN that in some states, like in the midwest, there is a higher prestige and acceptance surrounding "book bucks" than here in the south. How many times do you hear midwest hunters like Eberhart mention these scoring systems? Frequently. I personally believe that the culture is different in the south and less emphasis is put on those deer. Also, if you are in an area of fewer "trophy class" animals than average, I think you may be more likely to NOT report your kill as you don't want to draw attention to your spot/area. This further exaggerates stratification between top and bottom ranked states.
The best way of navigating this is probably to try and secure mandatory harvest reporting data from game and fish agencies for each state, I know it is available by county in some forms in TN. Then volunteer bias is largely eliminated.
Finally, this information is purely based on arbitrary lines we humans drew in the sand to subdivide our country based very loosely on natural barriers. This means fertile river valleys with great soil and harsh mountain terrain are very frequently grouped together in places like the Appalachian states and Arkansas. This is a gigantic flaw in this approach, and a regional analysis based on geography or soil maps would be much more useful, for instance, using county-level PY data and classifying counties by average soil quality.
I know this isn't really feasible to do and you are working with what you've got. But I think comparing your opportunity between states (like oh I have a better chance in NC than SC) is beyond pointless here using this reporting system. Look at the Georgia numbers and then go watch Seek One's youtube channel and see what I mean.
We talk about score and give an inch estimate when we describe a big buck, and we score what we shoot, but they don't get registered.
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Wow, @KYHunter is right. I have a family member who does taxidermy in NY. Knowing what area taxidermists take in each year, the data is laughable.
I guess it's somewhere to start, but it looks more like grasping at straws than I thought.
Now that I think about it more, I'd argue the data would be skewed more for the eastern/ southern states to more likely be the ones to register P&Y bucks. It's a bigger deal there to shoot a 130" buck than it is in the midwest. Registering a P&Y buck is a way to brag about it.
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From what I'm seeing, that assumption isn't holding any weight. They're not getting entered.
That I think probably holds true in the population of hunters that do not routinely kill that caliber of deer. Most of the guys that are consistently killing P&Y or better deer dont typically advertise that very much(non-industry folks).
I was going to type up a response but
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
Ok. I can't help it. I love you but that's dumb. Really, really dumb. So a sample size of "my brother-in-laws taxidermy shop for the past few years" beats a nationally recognized institution that has been sampling the big buck population for over 100 years??? I'm literally at a loss for words right now. I feel like I'm playing poker with my sister's kids here.
Here I was wondering if posting the information might feasibly hurt me by upping other hunters' game. But nah. Nobody believes it's true!
Here's a friggin thought...wonder how many taxidermist shops there are in New York vs Iowa that could send you some pics?
I physically hurt right now trying to process this. Somebody tell me this man is just yanking my chain right now.
North Carolina County-By-County Analysis
Hey all you tarheel boys. Don't worry too much about the fact that in over 100 years you only have 300 P&Y bucks on record and that 77% of them came from 20% of your counties. I just talked with a taxidermist up there and he says he's STILL trying to mount all the big bucks he got shot last year. Better lock down those lease agreements because I hear the Drury Brothers and old Mickey Waddel are looking to start filming over there!!! There's all KINDA big bucks up thar!
Hey all you tarheel boys. Don't worry too much about the fact that in over 100 years you only have 300 P&Y bucks on record and that 77% of them came from 20% of your counties. I just talked with a taxidermist up there and he says he's STILL trying to mount all the big bucks he got shot last year. Better lock down those lease agreements because I hear the Drury Brothers and old Mickey Waddel are looking to start filming over there!!! There's all KINDA big bucks up thar!
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All I can say is I guess P&Y would get more entries if they produced top notch deer mounts.
The data is ****.
There are enough kills that are either not wanting to draw attention to an area or illegal kills that it makes it difficult to judge an areas trophy potential. Absolutely without doubt p&y only sees some of the 125”+ deer in my area.
That said when using the information to compare one area to the other it works. The percentage of braggarts and secretive people is probably pretty evenly spread from one side of the country to the other.
I grew up in a town about 20 miles north of the Florida line. It’s amazing how much traffic is headed north the Friday before opening morning. I would be comfortable saying half the p&y deer sitting in taxidermy shops in Florida weren’t killed in Florida.
The last thing is a 125” deer is bigger than most people think once you pull the tape. Most long time seasoned hunters miss judge about 15 inches to the high side.
That said when using the information to compare one area to the other it works. The percentage of braggarts and secretive people is probably pretty evenly spread from one side of the country to the other.
I grew up in a town about 20 miles north of the Florida line. It’s amazing how much traffic is headed north the Friday before opening morning. I would be comfortable saying half the p&y deer sitting in taxidermy shops in Florida weren’t killed in Florida.
The last thing is a 125” deer is bigger than most people think once you pull the tape. Most long time seasoned hunters miss judge about 15 inches to the high side.
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I agree here.
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This is all speculation but I'd almost put money down this happens more around here than not. I'm totally stereotyping but the jacked up diesel pickup bedazzled jean wearing "country boys" are entering their deer while the farm guys that don't want poachers and raised the deer are keeping their mouths shut. Some won't even take their deer to taxidermists. Loose lips sink ships!
Maybe and I’m not sure where you live but a farmer has nothing to lose if the secret gets out. The jacked up bedazzled country boys lease would go up if the word got out. At least it would in my area.
LAKY
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Sounds like everywhere is the same with people holding out on entering P&Y or not being able to enter because of some technicality. So, it stands to reason, if that's the case everywhere, then the data should be fine for making general conclusions about top areas. Thanks @Nutterbuster for putting that all together.