I have no significant data to back this up. Just a lot of thought, wasted time and money, and my own experience:
You're going to spend a minimum of about 10,000.00 to kill your first elk. Minimum.
You have many different ways to write the check, but you're writing the check.
You can spend hundreds of hours trying to analyze the problem from your couch on the internet. Time you could be spending working earning money, spending time with family, chores, etc. Or you can spend dozens of hours, plus travel costs, to go any place you might hunt to scout, build a network, plan logistics, etc. No matter how you cut it, you will spend thousands of dollars in time or actual dollars doing this.
You can spend hundreds of hours getting in good enough shape to be terrible at elk hunting. Or you can spend hundreds of hours on the mountain being out of shape while being terrible at elk hunting. If you're going to do it on your own, these are the only two options. Either way, you'll be spending thousands of dollars in time or actual dollars doing this.
I could go on and on about all the gear, time, effort, thought, etc. that pile up to go kill an elk. But just those two examples above are going to be at least several thousands dollars in real costs to you. Then tack on the others.
You can of course ignore these realities and convince yourself that the only real costs are the tags, new sitka suit, light tent, and dehydrated meals. The rest is "fun" and nowhere near as consuming as I've described.
Or, You might be in the very small percentage of folks who are really smart, focused, physically fit, and capable of going execute an extremely dynamic mission with zero knowledge of the topic, in 10% of the time it takes everyone else.
Or, You could admit to yourself you really don't want to kill an elk as bad as you think you do, or for the reasons you tell yourself. And if you're honest with yourself, you can talk yourself into paying a guide roughly the same amount of money to short circuit all that comes with a DIY hunt.
That's really the options:
Be brilliant (you ain't asking interweb strangers how to elk hunt.)
Lie to yourself.
Be honest about your actual desires, and pay a guide.
Or, go in eyes wide open. Think about how much time and effort it takes you to earn 10,000.00 doing your day job. Then recognize that you're going to be way, way, way less efficient at earning 10,000.00 of "elk hunting". Then make a decision if that time/money investment is going to be worth it to you tomorrow. Then ask if it will still be worth it in a month from now. 6month from now. A year from now. Ten years from now. When you retire. When you die.
I can honestly say, after devoting thousands of dollars, hundreds of hours, and significant mental and emotional investment, and bearing significant opportunity costs giving up other options, and killing an elk - I like elk hunting about 3/4 as much as I thought I would before I took the first major steps towards doing it. Enough to make it worth it. Enough to look at that investment, which is now a sunk cost, and decide to continue devoting more resources to killing a second elk.
And I can look back and say that if I didn't want to kill another one after all of this, the better choice would have been to pay a guide from go.
So if you view it as a bucket list item, pay a guide. If you're right, you will have saved a ridiculous amount of time and effort to check the box. If you're wrong, you will start your DIY elk hunting journey on much firmer footing, and save a bunch of time and money in the process.
If you're sure you want to go elk hunting, but aren't sure if it would be a one time thing, or something you'll want to continue doing, then consider all I've said above.
I can’t imagine being a no -res and jumping around all the time would be very productive in the long term but I’m not sure.
How many years have you elk hunted? How many elk have you killed?
@kyler1945 and others who have done it now and have had some success, besides the logistics of licensing, tags, locations, access, pressure, fitness and densities, what specific things would you say are the most important things to concentrate or fixate about to up your odds? I’m thinking once you identify a decent area with a lot of the issues above factored out, what’s left with the equation? I would think once you have the area for the most part to concentrate on, most likely identifying those OTC states for opportunities every other year or so…. Learning that decent area and staying with it is probably a better overall investment of your time correct? Or what things surprised you the most or that you may have not considered until you were actually there engaged in the hunt?
Typically the hardest part of elk hunting for most people is finding elk. That is why we do a mix strategy of a base camp where we can bounce around areas that look good then have a spike camp setup to stay on them when you find them. Once you know what to look for, e scouting isn't that difficult. We usually get into elk on day 1 or 2(typically in at least sign on day 1), even on units we have not hunted before. Divide and conquer known areas/north facing dark timber with water in the bottom. You'll find them eventually. Elk truly need a lot of water.
This is another way to leverage. Use more human brains. If you've got a good hunting partner, or even better a group, your odds of finding elk go way up.
All the better if you view success collectively. Anyone in the group letting an arrow fly should be the goal.
What if you're a loner like me???
I will first admit I know nothing about Elk hunting. I have a friend who lives in Redstone which makes my life SUPER easy in planning and what I take with me. I fly since I don't take much more than boots and clothing. I learned a few things
#1 Good boots were worth the money. First year my feet were destroyed and it wasn't fun. Like not fun AT ALL
#2 Good packs make a big difference. First year hauling meat sucked with the cheapo pack he gave me. Packing meat out (depending on where you are) always sucks but when its done you look back and think that was def. worth it. While you are in it, its not fun at least for me LOL. He also never takes me to the easy places, he makes me work for my rewards.
#3 Dress much lighter than you think you need to. I got dressed the first day and he basically laughed at me and was like nope take all that off. You might be freezing when we get out of the truck but you'll be good in about 60 seconds of walking. But, take nice lightweight packable layers
#4 I workout every single day except weekends. No matter how much I train when I get there it always kicks my butt. The altitude will get you no matter what but seriously train with a weighted pack for months prior to going. I quickly realized I thought I was in good shape but the guys who live there and do it are athletes and there is no joking around about that. Again, I have not hunted some of these nice ranches he shows me where its much flatter and you can drive a truck to pick up your animal. Two miles in here in Pennsylvania is a joke compared to two miles in CO where I've hunted.
There are clearly guys on here that know a lot more than me but as a 'flatlander' those are my takeaways. I hope the both of you have great success and find it rewarding. Take a moment often to look around at the beauty and smile. You are doing something with a buddy that a lot of guys don't do or simply can't do. Be happy in the moment and enjoy the adventure!
What if you're a loner like me???
But I just don't see a way that the average guy with average intelligence, average fitness, average gear, can internet scout and drive across the country and have better than about a 1% chance of "hunting elk" their first trip. By hunting elk, I mean being within 200 yards of an elk that doesn't know they are there, with a reasonable path to getting in bow range to kill them.
If you're thinking "just go hunt, whys it gotta be so complicated?" It's not. Success rate on public land is 10%. That doesn't mean if YOU go, your odds are 1/10. That means tens of thousands of people go, some really experienced killers, some in really high odds units, some just decent people, and some rookie hunters. That distribution probably looks like 1/100 or 1/1000 for the rookies.
I can’t imagine being a no -res and jumping around all the time would be very productive in the long term but I’m not sure.
Talk about AZ, my cousin has a "cabin" in Northern AZ and everytime they go up there they see herds of elk and send me pictures of them. They even havea feeder (looks like a hay holder type feeder for cows) that the elk stick their heads in to eat. The people that owned the place before them put it up. Shame of it is, he's not a hunter at all. I wouldn't hunt Elk like that at all but man, If I could arrange to stay at his place and pay him a little every year to go out there start to recon the area and make a family trip or two out of it too??? Depending on his location and what not it may be a plus plus. My wife also has a cousin that lives out in CO near Boulder. I also have an aunt and uncle and a cousin that live near Salem and Eugene. My problem I don't know if good elk country is near any of the OR opportunities.Just because you are in NM or AZ, it doesn't mean there are going to be herds of 200 elk that come thundering past on every open mesa or PJ flat!)