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A hot weather ?

kyler1945 said:
If our OP had camera intel of his property, and all the crazy daytime deer movement despite the warm weather, my guess is he wouldn’t be asking for advice on whether to hunt.

I’m not saying don’t hunt. Neither is the good doctor. He’s saying he doesn’t hunt, because he doesn’t like spending time in the woods in low leverage situations - a personal choice derived from his research and personal proclivities.

The math is the math though. As a general rule, temperature effects daytime deer movement to a larger degree than any other factor. And though the specific property you’re referencing, on the specific day you’re discussing, was not included in that data set, across time and circumstance, the trend will hold.

I’m not answering his question of whether he should hunt today. That’s silly to even attempt to answer that question. I’m also not sure if he should walk in traffic, or cook chili.

I’m answering his general unspoken question - he knows the conditions don’t favor him. He’s trying to justify trying anyway. I’d rather remind him of the general trend that makes him be unsure. Because that usually leads to the best outcomes over time. But if he wants to tell a story to justify hunting this week, shoot - I’m a silly ape too! I’m all for it.

Seems useful to be able to admit it, then move forward wjth that knowledge. Maybe not.
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Right, he's asking because he doesn't know. I'm saying go find out (within the context of what he already knows).

You and me and the Dr, we can only speculate on what exactly is going on at someone's property we know little to nothing about. Sometimes things run contrary to the trends, and it might be worth looking into is all.
 
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I would just make sure I played the wind right and go into my spot without making a bunch if noise. When November comes all bets are off as to what any given buck will do. He might be running all over the property in daylight but not infront of your camera but you'll never know if unless you get out there.
As the saying goes can't shoot a deer from your couch
 
Dsabhunt said:
I would just make sure I played the wind right and go into my spot without making a bunch if noise. When November comes all bets are off as to what any given buck will do. He might be running all over the property in daylight but not infront of your camera but you'll never know if unless you get out there.
As the saying goes can't shoot a deer from your couch
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Better to not bugger up your best spots imho. My cameras are at my stand locations so if I'm not getting big buck (or any deer) movement on camera then chances are if a deer is in the area he's not within shooting range of my tree. Note: I generally only bow hunt.
 
I only bow hunt. Im not saying go in and mess up your best spots. But if you play the wind and are quite you wont mess up your spots.
Unless you have trail cameras pointing in every direction around your tree there's still a possibility of your target buck being there. He just may be camera shy
 
DroptineKrazy said:
I'm with Jeff Sturgis on this one. He's a big advocate of not hunting your best stands until conditions are optimal. Of course a flexible schedule to be able to hunt when you want to is a must in that situation.
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I've never really enjoyed that kind of flexibility and personally it's been good for me as a hunter to have experienced a be out there whenever you can situation. It's built maybe a broader context than perhaps I'd have had otherwise. One thing I've kind of seen is that certain spots have different optimal conditions and timing, and it's forced me to sort of seek them out.

Jeff Sturgis is quite successful no doubt. From what I've seen of Jeff lately is a focus on small(ish) properties and a strategy of using land improvement and surrounding pressure to pull and hold deer onto his parcels. In that context, his strategy makes a lot of sense. And his familiarity with his land and the local goings on situate him to have a good understanding of what is optimal for his strategy to be successful. Clearly, it works for him.
 
I'm just saying if you have a limited number of days to be out there then it makes sense to hunt on days that give you the best odds. Again, this only applies if you have a flexible schedule.
 
DroptineKrazy said:
I'm just saying if you have a limited number of days to be out there then it makes sense to hunt on days that give you the best odds. Again, this only applies if you have a flexible schedule.
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I totally agree.

I just think there are numerous contributors to what makes for optimal conditions and that can be very specific to a certain spot.

Weather is certainly a factor to consider, and perhaps it is the most prolific. And yet, across multiple days, it’s not suppressing movement on that property my brother’s FIL has access to. It’s absolutely rolling there.

Based strictly on counted beans, I’d agree with @kyler1945. But there’s often more to the story and there are many different stories, and I like stories at least as much as beans.
 
Blacksmith said:
I've always been told "The Best Time To Hunt Is When You Can" & You Can't Kill One On The Couch. I Agree w/ Maybe Staying Out of Your Favorite Spot For Now, but I Gotta Hunt Somewhere.
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According to Mr. Sturgis, that's bad advice. But I tend to agree. Being a person who must work fulltime and manage my vacation time or other forms of PTO, I value getting out whenever I can.
 
kyler1945 said:
Do you like stories or data?

If you like stories, go make one in the hot weather to tell everyone why the weather doesn’t matter and kill a big buck!

If you like data, go fishing until the temperatures drop dramatically.




Temperature:

After nearly twenty years of dissecting these data, there is absolutely no question that temperature reigns supreme as the weather factor that drives daytime whitetail movement. It will override rain, clouds, wind, and yes, even the rut. As you have discerned from this book about whitetails, if the weather is warm, I simply do not hunt. In Alabama, it makes that much of a difference. I’ve hunted in Texas a little, and it is actually possible to see good deer there in warm weather. But even there, let the temperature drop thirty degrees, and the number and quality of animals soar. Now, do hunters take deer, even good ones, during spells of warm weather? Of course they do. But I don’t play that game. That kind of hunting is supported by the same nonsense upon which the lottery is based. When you plop down your money against the lottery systems of the world, you will be consistently defeated. And the more you play, the more consistently you will be defeated! Why do people do such foolish things? It’s like the old adage from Albert Einstein that suggested, “Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over, but continuing to expect a different result.” Once I realized what my odds of taking a deer in unseasonably warm weather really was, I simply stopped doing the same stupid thing over and over, expecting a different result.
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I’m going anyway
 
I like a lot of stuff Jeff Sturgis has to say and he is super successful, but I also have to agree with @Plebe and @Dsabhunt that overall by just looking at the forecast, you're still missing a lot of other factors and conditions. Case in point, this past Tuesday November 2nd. For all intents and purposes by just looking at the weather forecast, temps, etc. I shouldn't have gone out. But I'm glad I did. I saw three bucks on that evening sit. Could have taken two of the three and the first buck I heard first when I wasn't even all the way set up. I was at HH, but my bow was still on the ground when I heard the telltale brrrp, brrrp, brrrp and there goes a decent 8 about 55 yards away from me from the east to the west. I'm like, "well they're running here." I didn't see a doe, but he acted like he was chasing. I hurriedly get my bow up, arrow nocked, quiver off and my release aid buckled. I grab my grunt call, mimic what the buck was doing and then bleat twice. He comes back but wasn’t really what I wanted. About a half hour later a tall forky comes out and spends time near me watching the ridge from where he came from. I was hoping a big boy was coming out the way he was staring back there but then he ambled off. Finally, around last light I hear that grunting again. Here comes a doe, then there’s the buck. Another 8 but not what I wanted either. May have been the one from earlier but don’t know 100%. My point, they were chasing big time.
 
kyler1945 said:
Do you like stories or data?

If you like stories, go make one in the hot weather to tell everyone why the weather doesn’t matter and kill a big buck!

If you like data, go fishing until the temperatures drop dramatically.




Temperature:

After nearly twenty years of dissecting these data, there is absolutely no question that temperature reigns supreme as the weather factor that drives daytime whitetail movement. It will override rain, clouds, wind, and yes, even the rut. As you have discerned from this book about whitetails, if the weather is warm, I simply do not hunt. In Alabama, it makes that much of a difference. I’ve hunted in Texas a little, and it is actually possible to see good deer there in warm weather. But even there, let the temperature drop thirty degrees, and the number and quality of animals soar. Now, do hunters take deer, even good ones, during spells of warm weather? Of course they do. But I don’t play that game. That kind of hunting is supported by the same nonsense upon which the lottery is based. When you plop down your money against the lottery systems of the world, you will be consistently defeated. And the more you play, the more consistently you will be defeated! Why do people do such foolish things? It’s like the old adage from Albert Einstein that suggested, “Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over, but continuing to expect a different result.” Once I realized what my odds of taking a deer in unseasonably warm weather really was, I simply stopped doing the same stupid thing over and over, expecting a different result.
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I don’t necessarily rely on stories or data. Sometimes I rely on experience. Like this morning, when it was 64 degrees outside and all my buddies were doubting me for going out because it was unseasonably warm. And then I shot a nice buck.
 
woodsdog2 said:
I like a lot of stuff Jeff Sturgis has to say and he is super successful, but I also have to agree with @Plebe and @Dsabhunt that overall by just looking at the forecast, you're still missing a lot of other factors and conditions. Case in point, this past Tuesday November 2nd. For all intents and purposes by just looking at the weather forecast, temps, etc. I shouldn't have gone out. But I'm glad I did. I saw three bucks on that evening sit. Could have taken two of the three and the first buck I heard first when I wasn't even all the way set up. I was at HH, but my bow was still on the ground when I heard the telltale brrrp, brrrp, brrrp and there goes a decent 8 about 55 yards away from me from the east to the west. I'm like, "well they're running here." I didn't see a doe, but he acted like he was chasing. I hurriedly get my bow up, arrow nocked, quiver off and my release aid buckled. I grab my grunt call, mimic what the buck was doing and then bleat twice. He comes back but wasn’t really what I wanted. About a half hour later a tall forky comes out and spends time near me watching the ridge from where he came from. I was hoping a big boy was coming out the way he was staring back there but then he ambled off. Finally, around last light I hear that grunting again. Here comes a doe, then there’s the buck. Another 8 but not what I wanted either. May have been the one from earlier but don’t know 100%. My point, they were chasing big time.
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We walked the dogs this afternoon. Wife, son, 2 dogs. 74deg. And at 3:30pm we walked right up to an 8pt on a path, who I believe was leaving his bedding to cruise.

Despite the heat, the winds had picked up and it felt cooler. So maybe that's a factor folks might want to take into account.
 
I am (or was) on a 3 week vacation. One week in PA, this week is (or was) OH, and next week back to PA. I've taken a pause on my vaca and went back to work and rescheduled those days for post-lockdown/pre Thanksgiving. I did have a pretty good 2 hours ( of 5 days) in OH. There must have been a nearly ripe doe on the property because I saw 6 bucks in 2 hours. I passed up taking a 10 yard shot at a sub par 10 point. Otherwise, those 5 days of that hunt were a total bust. It was the worst deer per hour ratio I've had in 25 years of hunting OH. Daylight movement was pretty poor.
I do see bucks from my home each and every day in this heat but it's usually young deer and late day. Certainly not prime enough hunting in order to use vacation on small properties.
If I was interested in non mature bucks then I would hunt short days, but mid day hunting, which is highly underrated, isn't worth the risk of screwing up small properties. And don't forget about the risks of spoilage on a bad hit.
This has been the worst prolonged heat spell for the rut that I can recall. There is a huge H pressure system (now parked off the east coast) that, not only pumps warm air to the north on its back side, it also blocks the next weather system from moving eastward. On November 2. There was actually a double H system that extended from southern Mexico, all the way to the North Pole! It about blew my mind when I saw it on Windy.com. I hate the west side of a H or the east side of a L because their respective rotations pump air fro south to north. It's a hot weather conveyor system. That's exactly what the Eastern third of the US is experiencing right now. I can't wait until that H moves away.
 
It was 73 when I got in my tree this afternoon at 4. Wind blowing 25 plus miles an hour. I had seen 2 fawns in the last 48 hours.
No I didn't shoot one but did pass an 8 point dogging a doe 10 minutes before last light. Not the deer I want but I was just happy to see some rut activity of any kind. Tomorrow morning may be a bust, winds are supposed to be 48 mph at 7 am but it improves immensely after that here in Illinois.

All I can say is you've got to keep after it if you want to be there when it's happening.
 
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