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A hot weather ?

Mattyq2402

Active Member
Joined
Mar 15, 2018
Messages
164
It's been brought up a ton, just getting yalls take. With lows in upper 50s and highs pushing into the low to mid 70s would you still go out? I'm on my cross country vacation dealing with the current Temps. My worry is gunk up my properties pushing my deer onto others where they'll meet the neighbors. The last few mornings have been mid 40s with very limited movement. Would you all go for it or hang it up and go fishing?
 
It's been brought up a ton, just getting yalls take. With lows in upper 50s and highs pushing into the low to mid 70s would you still go out? I'm on my cross country vacation dealing with the current Temps. My worry is gunk up my properties pushing my deer onto others where they'll meet the neighbors. The last few mornings have been mid 40s with very limited movement. Would you all go for it or hang it up and go fishing?
I would leave it be and look for that next major temp drop for more daytime activity if that’s what your experiencing
 
Im taking a break for a few days. Going to be almost 80 for several days
 
If you going after ole big boy, might want to wait on the rut, if not so picky, go for it. I have only been fishing so far, pound for pound I'm way ahead of the game.
 
If the weather pattern is above normal temps and stable, I'd would prolly lean towards not hunting or pull back to observation sit spots rather than pushing in to your best spots. If you have a front moving in or the next opportunity for a 10 degree or better temp drop, be in a tree. I was scheduled to be off and hunting today but we have had above 80 temps the last several days and supposed to it that again today but have a front moving through late tonight so I moved my day off but plan to be in a tree in the morning after the rain and 12-14 degree temp drop arrives. Almost as excited for the rain as I am the temp drop. They are calling for a couple inches out of this system and we need it big time. Half the durned fish got ticks at this point.
 
Just be patient. I'm in the same boat as you. I'm waiting for next Tuesday morning to get serious as we are supposed to go from temps in the seventies through Monday evening to a low around 36 Tuesday morning.
 
Do you like stories or data?

If you like stories, go make one in the hot weather to tell everyone why the weather doesn’t matter and kill a big buck!

If you like data, go fishing until the temperatures drop dramatically.




Temperature:

After nearly twenty years of dissecting these data, there is absolutely no question that temperature reigns supreme as the weather factor that drives daytime whitetail movement. It will override rain, clouds, wind, and yes, even the rut. As you have discerned from this book about whitetails, if the weather is warm, I simply do not hunt. In Alabama, it makes that much of a difference. I’ve hunted in Texas a little, and it is actually possible to see good deer there in warm weather. But even there, let the temperature drop thirty degrees, and the number and quality of animals soar. Now, do hunters take deer, even good ones, during spells of warm weather? Of course they do. But I don’t play that game. That kind of hunting is supported by the same nonsense upon which the lottery is based. When you plop down your money against the lottery systems of the world, you will be consistently defeated. And the more you play, the more consistently you will be defeated! Why do people do such foolish things? It’s like the old adage from Albert Einstein that suggested, “Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over, but continuing to expect a different result.” Once I realized what my odds of taking a deer in unseasonably warm weather really was, I simply stopped doing the same stupid thing over and over, expecting a different result.
 
Do you like stories or data?

If you like stories, go make one in the hot weather to tell everyone why the weather doesn’t matter and kill a big buck!

If you like data, go fishing until the temperatures drop dramatically.




Temperature:

After nearly twenty years of dissecting these data, there is absolutely no question that temperature reigns supreme as the weather factor that drives daytime whitetail movement. It will override rain, clouds, wind, and yes, even the rut. As you have discerned from this book about whitetails, if the weather is warm, I simply do not hunt. In Alabama, it makes that much of a difference. I’ve hunted in Texas a little, and it is actually possible to see good deer there in warm weather. But even there, let the temperature drop thirty degrees, and the number and quality of animals soar. Now, do hunters take deer, even good ones, during spells of warm weather? Of course they do. But I don’t play that game. That kind of hunting is supported by the same nonsense upon which the lottery is based. When you plop down your money against the lottery systems of the world, you will be consistently defeated. And the more you play, the more consistently you will be defeated! Why do people do such foolish things? It’s like the old adage from Albert Einstein that suggested, “Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over, but continuing to expect a different result.” Once I realized what my odds of taking a deer in unseasonably warm weather really was, I simply stopped doing the same stupid thing over and over, expecting a different result.
I agree with 99.9% of this. The only thing wrong with the comparison with the lottery is if I win 1.5 Billion my family will be set for generations. If I shoot a monster buck I just have a new pb that I have to try to top next season. :tearsofjoy:
 
Do you like stories or data?

If you like stories, go make one in the hot weather to tell everyone why the weather doesn’t matter and kill a big buck!

If you like data, go fishing until the temperatures drop dramatically.




Temperature:

After nearly twenty years of dissecting these data, there is absolutely no question that temperature reigns supreme as the weather factor that drives daytime whitetail movement. It will override rain, clouds, wind, and yes, even the rut. As you have discerned from this book about whitetails, if the weather is warm, I simply do not hunt. In Alabama, it makes that much of a difference. I’ve hunted in Texas a little, and it is actually possible to see good deer there in warm weather. But even there, let the temperature drop thirty degrees, and the number and quality of animals soar. Now, do hunters take deer, even good ones, during spells of warm weather? Of course they do. But I don’t play that game. That kind of hunting is supported by the same nonsense upon which the lottery is based. When you plop down your money against the lottery systems of the world, you will be consistently defeated. And the more you play, the more consistently you will be defeated! Why do people do such foolish things? It’s like the old adage from Albert Einstein that suggested, “Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over, but continuing to expect a different result.” Once I realized what my odds of taking a deer in unseasonably warm weather really was, I simply stopped doing the same stupid thing over and over, expecting a different result.

I spent yesterday afternoon sighting in rifles and checking out some new public with my brother and his FIL. His FIL has access to some private acreage and has cell cameras up. His biggest buck walked past his favorite spot 3 times during the day yesterday. And lots of other bucks and does were lighting up his cameras the whole time we were together, until I left at around 1pm. On Saturday I was at a trunk or treat with family and he was there and he had this same buck and numerous nice bucks and lots of other deer triggering his cameras during that time, from noon until 3.

His cameras have been hotter than ever, even though it's been much hotter than normal. So that data tells a different story. I know this acreage is a too small a data set for decision making across all hunting properties, but it is the most accurate data for where he hunts specifically and it's saying hunt now.
 
I spent yesterday afternoon sighting in rifles and checking out some new public with my brother and his FIL. His FIL has access to some private acreage and has cell cameras up. His biggest buck walked past his favorite spot 3 times during the day yesterday. And lots of other bucks and does were lighting up his cameras the whole time we were together, until I left at around 1pm. On Saturday I was at a trunk or treat with family and he was there and he had this same buck and numerous nice bucks and lots of other deer triggering his cameras during that time, from noon until 3.

His cameras have been hotter than ever, even though it's been much hotter than normal. So that data tells a different story. I know this acreage is a too small a data set for decision making across all hunting properties, but it is the most accurate data for where he hunts specifically and it's saying hunt now.
This kind of ties into the public vs private difference maybe? If you’ve done a great job managing some private and not pressuring it, seems like those warm temp chances would go up slightly. As to where on our local public you ain’t seein nuthin. Dunno for sure
 
This kind of ties into the public vs private difference maybe? If you’ve done a great job managing some private and not pressuring it, seems like those warm temp chances would go up slightly. As to where on our local public you ain’t seein nuthin. Dunno for sure
My cameras are all on private with little pressure other than me.
 
My cameras are all on private with little pressure other than me.
So many factors. All my public cameras have gone dead but they are all on scrapes. Usually when this happens it means chasing has begun and those bucks ain’t interested in scraping any more.
 
So many factors. All my public cameras have gone dead but they are all on scrapes. Usually when this happens it means chasing has begun and those bucks ain’t interested in scraping any more.
Some are on scrapes and haven't had any big bucks on them yet. Others are mostly on funnels.
 
This kind of ties into the public vs private difference maybe? If you’ve done a great job managing some private and not pressuring it, seems like those warm temp chances would go up slightly. As to where on our local public you ain’t seein nuthin. Dunno for sure

I've never been to this property, but I wouldn't say it's extensively managed. It hasn't been pressured much. One 8pt was taken there in October by the landowner, but it's mostly been left alone. My brother's FIL is waiting for crossbow season to open; it's killing him to see all this big buck action in the meantime.

I can't say how local public is performing right now, I've been tagged out since the first week of October.

But I walk my dogs each morning and watch for clues. I recorded the first chasing that I've witnessed this year on October 28th. I was ten feet from a 10pt a day or two later, by a big rub. Scrapes are getting freshened up daily and I've snuck up (with 2 noisy dogs) on several smaller bucks who always seem to be in the vicinity of them. There's lots of human/canine activity throughout the day there, it's a small piece adjacent to a beautiful private parcel that I sure wish I could hunt. I don't think there's any pressure on that private land, yet I keep bumping into bucks on this public despite the daily commotion.

Where I got my buck, over the past 5 seasons we have noticed a down tick in deer movement this time of year, independent of weather, whereas it used to be really good in early November. Conversely, it seems to be at least slightly better in October. I can't explain what's changed but I have that in mind when I make my plan. Some spots just run a certain way.

Still, I personally like a good front. But like deer sign, you can hunt it while it's hot or wait for it to get even hotter, but it might go cold on you too. Even if it buck the trends, if you've reason to believe activity is good despite conditions that aren't, it's reason enough to consider hunting. It might just be the best activity all year in that spot, for whatever reason. And if you go afield and it's stale, well there's a data point for how to proceed.

Or just go fishing, I hear they're biting.
 
Now, do hunters take deer, even good ones, during spells of warm weather? Of course they do.

I spent yesterday afternoon sighting in rifles and checking out some new public with my brother and his FIL. His FIL has access to some private acreage and has cell cameras up. His biggest buck walked past his favorite spot 3 times during the day yesterday. And lots of other bucks and does were lighting up his cameras the whole time we were together, until I left at around 1pm. On Saturday I was at a trunk or treat with family and he was there and he had this same buck and numerous nice bucks and lots of other deer triggering his cameras during that time, from noon until 3.

His cameras have been hotter than ever, even though it's been much hotter than normal. So that data tells a different story. I know this acreage is a too small a data set for decision making across all hunting properties, but it is the most accurate data for where he hunts specifically and it's saying hunt now.


If our OP had camera intel of his property, and all the crazy daytime deer movement despite the warm weather, my guess is he wouldn’t be asking for advice on whether to hunt.

I’m not saying don’t hunt. Neither is the good doctor. He’s saying he doesn’t hunt, because he doesn’t like spending time in the woods in low leverage situations - a personal choice derived from his research and personal proclivities.

The math is the math though. As a general rule, temperature effects daytime deer movement to a larger degree than any other factor. And though the specific property you’re referencing, on the specific day you’re discussing, was not included in that data set, across time and circumstance, the trend will hold.

I’m not answering his question of whether he should hunt today. That’s silly to even attempt to answer that question. I’m also not sure if he should walk in traffic, or cook chili.

I’m answering his general unspoken question - he knows the conditions don’t favor him. He’s trying to justify trying anyway. I’d rather remind him of the general trend that makes him be unsure. Because that usually leads to the best outcomes over time. But if he wants to tell a story to justify hunting this week, shoot - I’m a silly ape too! I’m all for it.

Seems useful to be able to admit it, then move forward wjth that knowledge. Maybe not.
 
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